7/8/07 post

Bounce Back Candidates

Every season at around this time of the year, we hope for certain players on our rosters to catch fire in the second half and hopefully propel our teams forward towards the league title.

In this week’s blog, I’d like to list these fantasy players on each of our fantasy teams who I predict will soon turn it around and pile on statistics that will make up for his mediocre season so far. I call these our “Bounce Back Candidates for 2007.

Bounce Back Candidates:

1. Upstate NY K9’s: It’s Nick Swisher…. So far his stats are mediocre but he’s too good for that. I predict a power surge at around the time Oakland makes a strong push towards stealing the lead from LAA for just a few weeks…

2. No Shot (ISUK): Easy… it’s Vernon Wells. This guy is already heating up. His swing is looking good and maybe leading off in the lineup was all he needed to change his approach. Expect 30+ homers by the end of the season. Actually, Toronto’s a pretty good team. Watch out Yankees!

3. Team Curran (CURR): Jason Bay. I know he’s really slumping right now, but maybe the All-Star Break is the time he needs to sit back and realize how to revitalize his talent. It’s not like he’s hurt or anything… If he gets traded to a pennant contender, that could also get him going.

4. Lost Causes (LOST): Travis Hafner. What’s up with that batting average. This guy is a little late this year with his surge but maybe he’ll make up for it with a HUGE surge starting NOW…. As divisional race gets tighter, this guy gets going. MVP may not be in the cards but he can be a huge contributor to his team.

5. Crazy Carl (CRCZ): Brian McCann: While everyone is watching Russell Martin, this catcher will help to propel the Atlanta Braves to the wildcard. I just have that feeling… and as the Braves go, so will McCann. He’s too talented.

6. Help Wanted (COOL): I LOVE that new team logo! Okay, the player I’m eyeing on your team is Ryan Zimmerman. This guy has unbelievable hand-eye coordination which means those outs he’s making are soon going to turn into hits and he figures out his mechanics. This guy went on a tear in the second half last year. No different this year.

7. Baseball Ambassadors (MIKE): Rafael Furcal: This guy has great speed and a good batting eye. He SHOULD be getting more steals and more hits. If he gets going, the Dodgers will definitely get going.

8. Southern Sting (SS): Manny Ramirez. Tick… tick… tick… and when he explodes, it’s going to be huge for a nice long stretch. He’s going to need to do this as the Sox head into the playoffs and the World Series.

9. Haymarket Boppa (BOPP): So much talent on this team. The one guy that stands out is JIM THOME. He’s having a decent but mediocre season for his standards. The White Sox may be out of the divisional race, but it doesn’t mean that Thome cashes in… he’ll end up with good stats.

10. Hilo Firebirds (HILO): David Ortiz. His stats are decent, but not Papi-like. I’m not sure if he’s injured or not, but I think he’s due.

6/30/07 post

The Fantasy All-Stars (The Hitters)

The All-Star Game is coming up soon, and not all the players are true FANTASY All-Stars. For us, those fantasy All-Stars produce numbers to help fantasy teams. I was taking a little glance at the stats and certain players just come out.

In this week’s blog, I’d like to list these fantasy players for their particular positions and even give them a ranking I call the “unexpected factor,” which I will use on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being the least surprising and 10 being extremely surprising or unexpected.

Fantasy All Stars:

Catcher: Russell Martin… It’s a close call between him and Victor Martinez but I like those speed numbers. He leads all catchers with runs scored and stolen bases and is still projected to have over 100 rbi and 20 home runs. Unexpected Factor (UF – 10)

1st Base: He leads all 1st basemen with 27 home runs and 55 runs. 55 runs? That’s the most surprising part. He gets on base and he gets home to score these runs. He’s not as slow as you might think! Hahaha… I’m not surprised he’s this good, but I am surprised he’s doing in this early in his career. (UF – 7)

2nd Base: Chase Utley. He’s the modern day Rogers Hornsby… He’s not quite Joe Morgan but he’ll still give you 15+ steals for the season. No doubt he’s the best 2nd baseman in the game today. Not even close… (UF – 1)

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins… but not by much. This position is so deep this year. Any of 6 other guys could arguably be the best SS: Reyes, Ramirez, Cabrera, Guillen, Hardy, and Jeter. You cannot lose by having any of these 7 guys. I chose Rollins because he gives you stats in all the categories… (UF – 5)

3rd Base: Alex Rodriguez. His run-producing stats on an underachieving team is so remarkable. He is the best fantasy 3rd baseman, by far. Cabrera is great, Wright is great, but A-Rod is godly. By the way, like the rest of the civilized world, I’m NOT surprised…. (UF – 1)

Outfield:
1. Vlad Guerrero: The best powerhitter on one of the best teams in the league. 71 RBI shows you produce runs. (UF – 3)
2. Mags Ordonez: Yes, it’s not a typo… he’s hitting .370 and he’s hit 68 rbi (2nd among all outfielders). He was great for several years a while ago when he was with the Chisox, but he’s really turned it around big time. (UF – 7)
3. Grady Sizemore: He’s on pace to be 25 homeruns and 50 steals. That’s unreal. I was debating between Sizemore, Ichiro,Soriano, and Sheffield… but Sizemore has a chance to be the first 30/50 in a long time.

6/23/07 post

Reveal my sources? I’m not sure…. Hmmm… okay!

During the baseball season and during the entire month of March, I spend perhaps 10 to 30 minutes a day looking at various baseball roto websites to get the latest news and updates. I know everyone has their own personal sources, but I’ve found five sources to be my favorites.

Although my latest copy of Baseball Prospectus will always be my roto Bible… I look to these websites as my primary sources for the latest information of who to pick up, who to start, who to sit, and who to let go…

1. Rotoworld: (http://www.rotoworld.com/Content/playernews.aspx?sport=MLB)
*Fast… reliable… and always updated.

2. Rototimes: (http://www.rototimes.com/mlb/index.php)
*Good blogs, good articles, and good writers who are close to the action.

3. USA Today Fantasy: (http://fantasybaseball.usatoday.com/content/homesport.asp?sport=MLB)
*Wide range of articles, works collaboratively with Rotoworld

4. Fanball: (http://www.fanball.com/bb/newsbreakers.cfm)
*Sometimes they beat Rotoworld to the punch with updates, but sometimes you may not get a new update for 8 hours. They have some pretty funny writers though.

5. Rotoauthority: (http://www.rotoauthority.com)
*They may not have new information every day, but their stuff is so insightful. Some of their writers really know how to crunch numbers and stats. Who knew what BABIP stood for? This has become my favorite site in recent years.

5/20/07 post

Sunday Circuit Weekly Blog

*The discussion of keeper players got me thinking… “Who will be the players that will be kept for next year?”

*For entertainment purposes only, I forecasted probable keepers and probable free agents available for next year’s draft… Of course, with possible trades, major injuries and emerging stars, this list will change as the season progress… but hey, just for fun…

Haymarket:
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Maggio Ordonez
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
5. Joe Mauer

Southern Sting:
1. Jose Reyes
2. Justin Morneau
3. Prince Fielder
4. Jake Peavy
5. Joe Nathan

Sleeping with the Fishes
1. Albert Pojols
2. Jimmy Rollins
3. Derek Jeter
4. Adam Dunn
5. Matt Cain or Rich Hill

Lost Bombers
1. Carl Crawford
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Carlos Lee
4. Derek Lee
5. Francisco Cordero

Crazy Carl
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Vladamir Guerrero
3. Ichiro Suzuki
4. Rafael Furcal
5. Josh Beckett

Upstate NY K9’s
1. David Wright
2. Carlos Beltran
3. JJ Jardy
4. Roy Oswalt
5. Francisco Rodriguez

Baseball Ambassadors
1. Travis Hafner
2. Aramis Ramirez
3. Ryan Howard
4. CC Sabathia
5. Mariano Rivera

Team Curran
1. Mark Teixeira
2. Alfonso Soriano
3. Carlos Zambano
4. Brett Myers
5. Cole Hamels

Mud Suckerz
1. Chase Utley
2. Lance Berkman
3. Vernon Wells
4. Michael Young
5. Billy Wagner

Hilo Firebirds
1. Johan Santana
2. Felix Hernandez
3. JJ Putz
4. Matt Holliday
5. Hanley Ramirez

Possible Free Agents
1. David Ortiz
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Miguel Tejada
4. Bobby Abreu
5. Juan Pierre
6. Paul Konerko
7. Rickie Weeks
8. Brian Roberts
9. Jim Thome
10. Jason Bay
11. Roy Halladay
12. Bill Hall
13. Jermaine Dye
14. Adrian Gonzalez
15. Victor Martinez
16. Brian McCann
17. Andruw Jones
18. Todd Helton
19. Chone Figgins
20. Troy Glaus
21. Carlos Delgado
22. Mark Teahen
23. Carlos Guillen
24. John Lackey
25. Jason Bay
26. Ken Griffey
27. Jeremy Bonderman
28. Tim Lincecum
29. Ben Sheets
30. Torii Hunter

6/17/07 post

So many pitchers… so little….

It seems that there are so many pitchers there on the waiver that are available and perhaps they get picked up for just a start… but if I had extra bench space, I would pick these guys up….

Starters:

1. Joe Blanton: Every time I look at the waiver wire, he’s there. He’s got a nice WHIP, he’s got a nice ERA, and he does have more wins than losses.
2. Ervin Santana: When he starts at home, he usually gets the win… 95% of the time. Just start him at home and there’s a free win right there… but don’t ever start him outside of Anaheim… not even Dodger Stadium…
3. Dave Bush: His WHIP is still good… and his team wins… he’s gonna be good I think… for the rest of the season…. Last year he proved what he can do… for the rest of the season he gets better run support.
4. Gil Meche: If you need a good WHIP and a good ERA and a guy you can get you some K’s… he’s your man… he doesn’t win because he plays for KC but his overall stats are pretty good.
5. Sean Marshall: This guy is your hidden gem… trust me, if you need a starter, I like this guy the best. Rotowire raves about this guy… I rave about this guy. This guy will be as good as Rich Hill, I think.

Next week I talk about relievers and WHIP… so sorry it’s a little short but today’s a little busy for me…

Take care and good luck!

6/10/07 post

If I had more room on my team, I would pick up…

Here is a few hitters who I have been watching the last few days but haven’t had the chance to put them on my roster due to lack of room, but darn… if only we had more bench spots…

Next week, pitchers get a look…

Catcher:

1. Jarrod Saltalamacchia: This guy has so much talent and can just hit. If he ever starts playing first base, I’ll just snatch him and and drop my current catcher.
2. John Buck: Actually a pretty good hitter for a catcher… he was highly touted a few years ago.

1st base:

1. Ryan Klesko: If you can figure out when his team faces right-handed pitching, stick him in the lineup. If he faces a lefty, you may definitely want to sit him.
2. Greg Dobbs: Similar to Klesko… but he can sure whack that ball.
3. Ryan Doumit: The day he plays every day is the day you have to have him. He can play three positions (1b, of, c)

2nd base:

1. Brendan Harris: Wow… I didn’t realize he was hitting .300…… and besides, he also plays shortstop.
2. Luis Castillo: He gets no respect… he hits .300, scores runs, and steals a few bases yet no one wants him…

Shortstop:

1. Christian Guzman: Another wow… this guy is hot right now… hitting .350…. even when Lopez comes back I think Guzman still must play somewhere.
2. Troy Tulowitzki: I think he’ll have nice power stats when the season is over… my guess he’ll hit close to 20 homers and get 75+ RBI…

OF:

1. Pat Burrell: I have a feeling he’ll get hot sometime soon. Besides, he is taking a lot of walks and shown some patience at the plate. I just have a good feeling about him.
2. Joey Gathright: You need steals? I got someone for you… his name is Joey and he plays for Kansas City… He will have 30+ steals before the season is done.
3. Juan Encarnacion: A decent power hitter who is slowly starting to hit well again. Shhhhh….

6/3/07 post

Wow… Almost halfway through the season. I can’t believe it.

Although it looks like Firebirds are starting to slip back down to the pack again and the Sting is making an early run at first. You don’t usually see the Sting start their spurt till after the All-Star Game but things are definitely tightening up. It’s still anyways race.

Last week, we looked at which team looked the strongest in the categories of power, speed, bullpen, and starters.

This week, we go a little deeper and look at hidden categories… run production and strikeouts

1. Run Production: The Haymarket Boppa: Haymarket is a team with a nice blend of power hitters and hitters who get on base and score a lot of runs. It’s not just the power of A-Rod , Mags and Thome…. It’s the ability of Roberts and Youkilis to get on base and score runs.

*Did you know? Crazy Carl quietly leads the league in runs scored. Once the RBI’s start to happen, watch out. The Baseball Ambassadors have quietly rushed towards the lead in RBI’s… even with the loss of Hafner they still have enough firepower to become one of the leads best offenses.

2. Strikeout group: Southern Sting: The Sting, with a combination of strikeout starters and the best bullpen in the league have (by far) the best strikeout pitching group in the league. They average 8.39 strikeouts per start. The Slumpers and the Firebirds are a distant second with 7.02

*Did you know? The Sting’s bullpen accounts for 1/3 of their total strikeouts? That’s impressive. On the other hand, they rank 10th in strikeouts because they still only have 40 starts compared to the league average of 65… which means the Sting will have only 120 starts at this pace, below the 180 allowed…. But there will definitely be a mad rush at the end.

5/27 post

The season is moving very quickly and we are approaching the end of the first 1/3 of the season. I can still remember our league draft almost 3 months ago… though it feels like just yesterday.

As I looked at the teams and where we each stand, I saw little trends and patterns that reveal strengths of each team. Though we all try to aim for balance, each team has developed its own individual strength. For some teams, this strength has made them stand out amongst the rest of the teams.

In this Sunday’s blog, I discuss which team has the best strength in different categories.

1. Best Power: The Haymarket Boppa:

*Mags is having a career season, Torii Hunter is having a career season, A-Rod is… well, A-Rod again… and Thome is BACK… This team (Haymarket) has the power to stay in the top 3 the whole season… probably the most stable team in the league at this stage.

2. Best Speed: Sleeping with the Fishes:

*This team is literally “running away” with the stolen bases title. Rollins, Coco, Taveras, Lugo, Jeter, Damon… they ALL run… and even Pujols runs too… Speaking of Pujols, he leads a group of underachieving power hitters in that lineup… I predict that this team has the potential to really take off starting in July…

3. Best Bullpen: Southern Sting:

*By far… by far… the best collection of closers in the league. Four of the best closers in the game… all on one fantasy team…. No one will catch them in this category…

4. Best Starters: Hilo Firebirds:

*Sting and Lost Bombers come close… but I have to give a slight edge to my Birds so far… but anything can happen at this stage…What I like about the Lost Bombers’ pitching staff is how Snell, Harang, and Haren have really proven tha last year wasn’t a fluke…. I like this team’s pitching…. And… The Sting have this guy named Jake Peavy, who is FINALLY pitching to his potential.

Week 14: HALFWAY THERE!

Week 14 Review: We are halfway!

Can you believe it? We are halfway done with baseball’s regular season. Impressively, the Detroit Tigers have kept it going as this year’s possible team of destiny. Sure we know the names of their main hitters, like Pudge and Mags, but the Tigers have mainly done it with terrific pitching. Bonderman (Bombers), Verlander (Firebirds), and Kenny Rogers (Dingle Berries) have bolstered the Tigers and have also bolstered numerous fantasy teams.

Like the Tigers, the Bombers have their share of offense and the big names there, but it is their pitching that has been especially amazing in the 2006 Hallucination season.

I’m in the mood for gambling today. Let’s put some odds on our league teams and what they could possibly do to catch those Bombers.

1. Bombers:
Odds to win: 80% to win. Only team not to have odds against them.
Needs: Continue to dominate with pitching. Liriano, Bonderman, and Sabathia have been unstoppable for most of the season.

2. Rounders:
Odds to win: 3 to 1.
Needs: One more closer, Buehrle needs to turn it around, and 2 more POWER bats.

3. Firebirds:
Odds to win: 4 to 1.
Needs: Pitching is coming around, but strikeouts seem to be lacking for the power arms. Harden is pretty much lost at this point. Also, Holliday, Hawpe, Youkilis, and Utley need to progress from good power hitters to great power hitters.

4. Haymarket Boppa:
Odds to win: 5 to 1
Needs: Power is looking good, especially with Derek Lee now back. Now, about that starting pitching. Sheets and Prior need to get back to their former selves… If they do, you’ll be looking good.

5. Dingle Berries:
Odds to win: 6 to 1
Needs: You definitely need more power from your other hitters. Berkman is pulling his weight, but Jones, Vlad, and Burrell need to get their juice going.

6. Crazy Carl:
Odds to win: 6 to 1
Needs: You have good pitching top to bottom. In fact, lots of talent there. In fact, you got 9’s for wins and saves. That says a lot… BUT… You have just two hitters with 60 RBI… I guess that’s where you may want to bolster your team. RBI guys…

7. Sting:
Odds to win: 8 to 1
Needs: Your team just needs to get healthy. Solid pitching, solid bullpen… but injuries have sucked up your power. How about sending a closer for a power hitter?

8. Oaklyn Oddballs / NY K9’s:
Odds to win: 15 to 1
Needs: Both your teams have terrific talents. I’m not sure what went wrong, but I hope things turn out for the better. Willis, Zito, Giles, Drew… all underachieving right now.

Week 9: Crystal ball time

How will the current stats play out through the season?

The season is officially one-third over. That means that summer is here and the All-Star Game is just around the corner.
The division races are all still close, especially in the AL East, the AL Central, and the NL West. Also, I think the Pujols’ injury will play a bigger impact in the NL Central than most people realize. Sure, Carpenter is coming back, but he plays every 5 days. Pujols plays EVERY DAY… and Clemens’ return could rejuvenate the Astros even before he starts his first game with them.
And let’s not forget… these players’ situations not only impact real baseball. They also impact fantasy baseball a huge amount. Today, I’d like to take last year’s season-ending statistics and our category leaders and prorate if our league is on pace compared to last year:

Runs:
Last year’s final: 1210 (Crazy Carl)
This year’s current: 461 (Firebirds) prorate to 1383
Pace? Way ahead of schedule (did I just jinx myself?)

Homeruns:
Last year’s final: 336 (Texas Yanks Fan)
This year’s current: 132 (Bombers) prorate to 396
Pace? Way ahead of schedule

RBI:
Last year’s final: 1174 (Texas Yanks Fan)
This year’s current: 443 (Bombers) prorate to 1329
Pace? Way ahead of schedule

Stolen bases:
Last year’s final: 194 (Upstate NY K9s)
This year’s current: 87 (Tied: Bombers and Baked Beans) prorate to 261
Pace? Way ahead of schedule

Batting average:
Last year’s final: .2863 (Pawtucket Duds – this year’s Rounders)
This year’s current: .2928 (Bombers)
Pace? Higher than last year

Pitching wins:
Last year’s final: 108 (Bombers)
This year’s current: 44 (Rounders) prorate to 132 wins
Pace: Way ahead of schedule

Saves:
Last year’s final: 194 (Sting)
This year’s current: 55 (Sting) prorate to 165
Pace? Way BEHIND of schedule

Strikeouts:
Last year’s final: 1284 (Bombers)
This year’s current: 432 (Bombers) prorate to 1296
Pace? Similar pace

ERA:
Last year’s final: 3.382 (Bombers)
This year’s current: 2.947 (Rounders)
Pace? Much better than last year

WHIP:
Last year’s final: 1.180 (Beehman)
This year’s current: 1.101 Sting)
Pace? A little better than last year


Observations:

1. Our offensive stats currently are all on a pace to shatter last year’s final stats. It is generally the trend that offensive statistics do slow down a little for more than half of players during the 2nd half of the season, ending up with more realistic-looking stats at the end of the year. Nonetheless, it is amazing to see the Bombers’ statistical dominance at this point. I’m not sure if Corey Patterson can keep it up… but Alfonso Soriano sure has made a believer out of me.

2. The one statistic that we are behind schedule in is saves. Other than Papelbon and a few others, we aren’t seeing a bunch of closers getting a lot of saves this season. At least not yet. Perhaps there are more blow-out wins this season so far… perhaps there are more blown saves so far… or perhaps we are seeing more complete games from starting pitchers so far. I’d have to look it up.

3. Strikeouts are on pace as last year. And did you see? Bombers took it last year and he is taking it this year too. The Bombers had terrific pitching last year and are doing very similarly this year. What’s changed? In addition to great pitching, they NOW dominate 4 out of the 5 offensive statistics. That is why they have a 91.5 roto score. Good job!

I’ll see you all next week! Take care!

Week 8 Review: We are approaching the 1/3 point of our journey

Wow! This is sure the fastest I’ve seen the baseball season go so far. I don’t know about you guys but for some reason I’m enjoying the season (real and fantasy) more this year than any other year I can remember. And to think… it’ll get more exciting after the All Star Game when pennant races get hotter. Detroit and Chicago down the stretch! Boston and New York! Oakland and Anaheim! Arizona and the Dodgers! The only teams running away are St. Louis and NY Mets… just my opinion. It will be strange not seeing the Braves making the playoffs this year, but kudos to the Mets.

Team of the Week: The Bay State Bombers.
To have one of our own… the Bombers… place as high as 14 in the fantasy baseball universe is so cool. I’d like to provide the Bombers with a little more competition, but it is refreshing to have one of our own be among the best (among the best). I’m not sure if the Bombers have the personnel to keep it up as far as starting pitching and batting average goes… but everything else is dominating. Their bullpen will remain strong and their power and speed is for real.

Hottest team: Crazy Carl’s Therapist
It wasn’t too long ago when Crazy Carl was 8th place… that’s when they had very little power and their bullpen was going through some transition. With the help of Jason Bay (damn guy is hitting the cover off the ball) and Carlos Beltran, Crazy Carl’s boys are starting to make a run into the top 3. These two guys could end up being top 5 players in the player-rater system by the end of the season. Bay, Beltran, Crisp, and Phillips are nice speed/combo type of players. And their 3 top pitchers: Schilling, Arroyo, and Harang keep moving along well. Each will get at least 15 wins, I think. Scary to think how good these guys will be when King Felix and Teixeira start playing up to potential. I think the Firebirds and the Rounders have to keep a close eye on Crazy Carl.

Unusual Stats: Oaklyn Oddballs
Very interesting… how does a team that has scores a 1 in RBI, a 1 with Stolen Bases, and a 3 for batting average score an 8 for runs scored (3rd in runs)? That’s interesting… It defies the logic I talked about in one of my earlier columns. By the way, Clemens’ return should bolster the staff of the Oddballs I think. Can’t wait till he returns… should be interesting.

Players I wish I could add on (if I had more bench space):

Pitchers:

*Orlando Hernandez: Something tells me that he’s going to turn it around and pitch “light out” with the Mets for the rest of the season.

*Anthony Reyes: This guy has been a stud in the minor leagues without the hype of Hammels and Jered Weaver. I think he has much better control (and makup) than the other two. I think the Cardinals should keep him on their roster for the rest of the season.

*Derek Lowe: Look at that ERA and WHIP… that’s what my team needs most right now. Hmmm… maybe I will add him on later in the week, if no one beats me to him.

1B:

Lyle Overbay: I’ve always been a big fan of him, and I think he’ll hit .300 before the end of the season, but I just wish he could hit a few more homers.

Mike Jacobs: He’s slowly getting hotter and his power is emerging, but it’s hard to sacrifice batting average right now… the power potential he has is amazing.

3B:

Youkilis: If you need batting average and runs
Encarnacion: If you want rbis
Inge: Only if he need more homers

OF:

Granderson: 18 homers / 18 steals
Hermida: 18 homers / 18 steals
Monroe: 24 homers / 90 rbi

Week 7 Review: Trends and Observations

Team of the Week: The Bay State Bombers.
Unbelievable! As far as I can remember, the Rounders steadily held the first place spot for the better of five weeks. They kept a consistent roto score between 75 and 80. The fact that the Bombers have exceeded that and even reached 85 at one point is astounding!!! All around the Roto universe you rarely find teams in the mid to high 80s. That basically means the team has few weaknesses on both the pitching and hitting categories. Furthermore, the Rounders haven’t lost anything really… they’re still chugging along in the mid-seventies… The Rounders haven’t declined… they’re just watching the Bombers crush the categories.
Interestingly, the Bombers haven’t done it by purely dominating single categories. The Rounders (two 10’s) and the Firebirds (three 10’s) each have more 10s than do the Bombers, who have just one 10 to brag about. But when you get 8’s and 9s in everything else… that’s impressive. Like I said in an earlier column… you don’t need a bunch of 10s to win.

2nd Class Citizens: The Shrewsbury Rounders and the Hilo Firebirds.
If I had the Rounders pitching staff and they had the Firebirds’ bats, we’d have the ultimate team. For the Rounders, the only big pitching names they have are Oswalt and Lidge (who have been okay if not inconsistent), but the other guys on that staff have been solid and steady. That’s team effort.
For the Firebirds, we’ve got big names like Randy Johnson and Eric Gagne… but you know where that’s got them… Big names don’t usually end in big results…

Unusual Stats: Dingle Berries.
Maybe I look too closely at stats, but I saw something that was unusual. For pitching, the Dingle Berries have a 9 in Strikeouts and a 9 in saves but 4’s or 3’s in everything else. Tim Hudson, John Lackey, and Cliff Lee sure are striking a lot of guys out this year, but have relatively high ERAs… And I was surprised to see Chris Reitsma with 7 saves despite his poor ERA. Very interesting.
Another unusual stat was the Dingle Berries tied for last place with homeruns and 9th in RBI while maintaining the best batting average in the league. This is a team with Lance Berkman (with 40 RBI), Vlad Guerrero, Scott Rolen, Pat Burrell, and Michael Young (who’s got only 1 homer so far). If their pitching holds steady (while dropping their ERA’s), and their power slowly comes back (especially with all those hitters), then these guys are ready to make a run.

They just won’t go away: No.1 Dawgs.
You keep thinking that they will sooner or later go into last place and there they are. That Albert Pujols can carry both a real team and a fantasy team, that’s for sure.

Where’s the hitting: Crazy Carl and Sting
Both teams have certain strengths in pitching and they should be okay with their pitching stats when the dust clears. Sting will get more wins and K’s when he gets more starts in and Crazy Carl’s saves will continue to climb and his WHIP will improve just as King Felix figures out his problems.
Now, what’s going to be their Achilles’ heel is their hitting. Sting’s problem is obviously tied in with injuries, but even before Matsui went down he wasn’t giving big numbers like he usually does. Francoeur and Podsednik are both hot right now, but your infielders (Cano, Crosby, Peralta, Uggla, and Sanchez) are mediocre but okay. I’d probably drop Reggie Sanders and get a pitcher, but that’s just me.
Crazy Carl’s situation is a little different. They’re not doing too well in batting average and with guys like Furcal hitting in the low .240s with a lot of at-bats, it doesn’t help. What’s surprised me is Kent and Huff having mediocre seasons right now. Also, it sure is weird seeing Mark Teixeira with less rbi than Brandon Phillips and an injured Moises Alou (and Alou did it with less than ½ the at-bats). The power numbers for Beltran and Bay aren’t too bad, but it would be nice to see them at least hit .285.

Trends:
1. Spot-starting pitching:
I see a lot of starting pitchers being picked up and dropped lately. I guess I did it a lot last year when my starting pitching sucked wind, but it has been so common now. Shoot, I bet some of these pitchers were owned by at least 3 owners during the 1st ¼ of the season.

2. Middle relief:
There was a time when set-up men were never bothered with in fantasy baseball. Today, it’s the best way to get those vulture wins and strikeouts. I myself own two… how about you?

3. Save me!!!
One of our strengths as a league (in League Production) is our number of saves. Whenever a closer goes down we jump on those new closers… It’s rare to see a “graduated” set-up man stay on the waiver wire for more than one hour after the moment he is proclaimed the new team closer.

4. Trade? Maybe not…
A couple of years ago, our league was filling the air with trades. These days, our league owners are better at using the waiver wire to better their teams. A few trades would be good, but it’s also good to see crafty owners build their teams from scouting and current baseball situations.

Quarter season update

The interesting thing about being a quarter into the season is that now you can look at your players’ statistics and times it all by about four (actually 4.2 because we’re just under a quarter ways through the season). Then you got a projection for the whole year.

This last week saw the breakthrough emergence of the Bay State Bombers. After weeks of being in second place, the Bombers have shown their dominance on the pitching end and their hitting has remained consistent. The Dingle Berries and the Sting have started to climb a little towards the 2nd tier of teams and are both ready to make their moves. Oaklyn’s team has gotten their ERA well under 5.00 and are starting to score runs and hit homers.

Through the quarter mark, I’ve got a little “subjective” listing of team mvp’s, team goats, and team surprise players…


Bay State Bombers:

Team MVP: It’s got to be Jim Thome. That guy looks like the guy who used to play for Cleveland with Manny, Alomar, and the rest of those guys. He’ll hit at least 40 homers this year.

Team Goat: Bartolo Colon. It’s hard to just drop the current cy young winner but he’s got injury problems, weight problems, run-support problems… Hey, a cy young pitcher is supposed to be a fantasy ace.

Surprise player: Corey Patterson. If I were the Cubs, I’d rather have him than Pierre right now.

Shrewsbury Rounders:

Team MVP: Brandon Webb. Yes! This guy is pitching his heart out this year. Look at that ERA, that WHIP, and those 6 wins. He’s always had potential. This year he could compete for Cy Young.

Team Goat: Jorge Cantu. It was either Lidge (with his crazy ERA) or Cantu and I chose Cantu because he can’t help the team where he is right now. Besides, he’s supposed to be a 100 rbi guy.

Surprise player: Nomar. Okay, who besides me thought that Nomar was done as a solid fantasy player? Nomar is hitting a solid .341 and plays 3 positions… nice.

Hilo Firebirds:

Team MVP: Jose Valverde. With all the problems on the Firebird’s pitching staff, Valverde has remained the one constant. 12 saves, one win, nice ERA and WHIP. Thank you my friend.

Team Goat: Randy Johnson. He deserves to be demoted to Columbus.

Surprise player: Kevin Mench. It’s all in the shoes….

Dingle Berries

Team MVP: Lance Berkman. He has 1B/OF eligibility and wonderful power numbers.

Team Goat: Chris Reitsma. Over 6.00 ERA and still closing for the Braves???

Surprise player: Felipe Lopez. 16 steals and counting!!! Unreal! He’s got more steals than Pierre or Crawford!

Haymarket Baked Beans

Team MVP: Jon Papelbon. Enough said.

Team Goat: Ben Sheets. He teases with a couple good games, then has some bad games, then goes on the DL again…

Surprise players: Tom Glavine/Mike Mussina (tie) Wow! Talk about being young again!


Florida Sting

Team MVP: Pedro Martinez (the one steadying force on that pitching staff)

Team Goat: Injuries (look how many!). So many key injuries on this team. Hard to really pick a goat with all those injuries.

Surprise player: Dan Uggla. Good player…weird name… hehehe…

Upstate NY K9s

Team MVP: This may surprise some of you but I’m going with Scott Kazmir. He’s really looking like one of the best lefties in the majors today. Six wins on that TB team is pretty impressive.

Team Goat: Dontrelle Willis. What a big difference from last year!

Surprise player: Prince Fielder. I thought all he would provide is power. He hits for average pretty well, to my surprise.

NO.1 Dawgs:

Team MVP: Albert Pujols. Best hitting stats in baseball.

Team Goat: Marcus Giles. Poor stats for a stud 2nd baseman. Hopefully he’ll turn it around.
Surprise player: Rafael Soriano. Very nice stats for a middle relief guy.

Crazy Carl’s Therapist:

Team MVP: Curt Schilling. Although his ERA is a little high, he’s been a pretty steady winner this season. He will win over 15 games.

Team Goat: Felix Hernandez. All the hype, so little in return. I love his ability, but I can’t figure out why he’s struggling so much this year.

Surprise player: Bronson Arroyo. Wow! What a season! Hopefully he can keep it up.

Oaklyn Oddballs:

Team MVP: Nick Swisher. The star of Moneyball finally lives up to potential! I love this guy, and he’s got 1B/OF eligibility too.

Team Goat: Roger Clemens. He’s taking up a spot and he can’t seem to make up his mind if he wants to come back or not.

Surprise player: Brian McCann. One of the best hitting catchers in the league right now.

Best in categories

As we head towards the end of the first quarter of Hallucination 2006, it’s time to take a look at how our teams have evolved. As we know, through the draft, trades, and waiver pickups, our teams have taken shape in many forms. I’ve taken several categories and ranked how teams fared in each one. Of course, it’s purely subjective.

Best overall pitching:
1. Rounders: Just look at the roto points! Outstanding starters mixed with good middle relief pitchers. May lack the true closers right now but temp closers are doing the job, for the moment.
2. Bombers: Best bullpen mixed with above average starters in Sabathia and Bonderman.
3. Crazy Carl: Improved bullpen, plus King Felix, plus “the old Schilling is back”, plus two Reds pitchers who are getting oodles of run support… Not too bad!

Best overall offense:
1. Bombers: They may rank 2nd in offensive roto points, but they have a better forecast than the Firebirds, especially with Crawford getting ready to RUN. Their power and speed are both legit.
2. Firebirds: They’re hitting over their heads!!! Don’t wake them up!!!
3. Baked Beans: The speed is unmatched, the power is waiting.

Best starting pitching:
1. Rounders: It starts with Oswalt and Beckett… then Webb and Penny. Who needs 5 starters when you can get wins with setup men?
2. Oaklyn Oddballs: Santana is starting his 2nd half blitz a little early this year, Smoltz will be fine, Maddux looks like the “old Maddux,” and Clemens is lurking…
3. K9’s: The names are there. Carpenter, Willis, Zito, Mulder, and you can now add Kazmir.

Best bullpen
1. Bombers: They get saves, they get wins, they get K’s. It’s not just about saves, it’s overall production from your bullpen. The Bombers’ bullpen includes everything you want.
2. Crazy Carl/Sting: These two teams both have solid closers and will both end up in the top 3 in saves this season. Although Sting has 5 closer arms and Crazy Carl has 4, Sting has the combustible duo in Walker and Jenks… time will tell…
3. Dingle Berries: Even with the loss of Ryan the Berries still have a nice set of closers that will pile up the saves. Reitsma is the only question mark.

Best power and run production
1. Firebirds: For now, these guys are hitting above their heads. It’s a matter of time before Hawpe, Mench, Nevin, and Encarnacion start to figure out that they’re not supposed to be this good.
2. Bombers: Natural power all over the place, especially with Thome, Soriano, Glaus, and Dunn. Imagine how good they can get when Grif comes back… Scary.
3. No.1 Dawgs: Pujols, Hafner, Lee… just these 3 alone keeps you in there. So many other hitters, like Edmonds and Mauer haven’t starting hitting yet, but they will.

Best speed
1. Baked Beans: Reyes and Figgins. Any fantasy team would love to have just one of these two. Baked Beans have TWO master thieves. Like they say, “There IS honor among thieves!”
2. Crazy Carl: Furcal and Lugo join a group of power/speed guys like Beltran, Crisp and Bay. Nice combination!
3. Dingle Berries: Something like “Crazy Carl-lite.” Ichiro and Taveras join a group of power/speed guys like Sizemore, Lopez, and Beltre.

Best overall team: (See the current point rankings)
1. Rounders
2. Bombers
3. Firebirds

Next best teams that could supplant the current top 3:
1. Baked Beans
2. Dingle Berries
3. K9s

Teams that WILL improve the most in the next few weeks:
1. Crazy Carl
2. Oaklyn Oddballs
3. Sting