Week 9: Crystal ball time

How will the current stats play out through the season?

The season is officially one-third over. That means that summer is here and the All-Star Game is just around the corner.
The division races are all still close, especially in the AL East, the AL Central, and the NL West. Also, I think the Pujols’ injury will play a bigger impact in the NL Central than most people realize. Sure, Carpenter is coming back, but he plays every 5 days. Pujols plays EVERY DAY… and Clemens’ return could rejuvenate the Astros even before he starts his first game with them.
And let’s not forget… these players’ situations not only impact real baseball. They also impact fantasy baseball a huge amount. Today, I’d like to take last year’s season-ending statistics and our category leaders and prorate if our league is on pace compared to last year:

Runs:
Last year’s final: 1210 (Crazy Carl)
This year’s current: 461 (Firebirds) prorate to 1383
Pace? Way ahead of schedule (did I just jinx myself?)

Homeruns:
Last year’s final: 336 (Texas Yanks Fan)
This year’s current: 132 (Bombers) prorate to 396
Pace? Way ahead of schedule

RBI:
Last year’s final: 1174 (Texas Yanks Fan)
This year’s current: 443 (Bombers) prorate to 1329
Pace? Way ahead of schedule

Stolen bases:
Last year’s final: 194 (Upstate NY K9s)
This year’s current: 87 (Tied: Bombers and Baked Beans) prorate to 261
Pace? Way ahead of schedule

Batting average:
Last year’s final: .2863 (Pawtucket Duds – this year’s Rounders)
This year’s current: .2928 (Bombers)
Pace? Higher than last year

Pitching wins:
Last year’s final: 108 (Bombers)
This year’s current: 44 (Rounders) prorate to 132 wins
Pace: Way ahead of schedule

Saves:
Last year’s final: 194 (Sting)
This year’s current: 55 (Sting) prorate to 165
Pace? Way BEHIND of schedule

Strikeouts:
Last year’s final: 1284 (Bombers)
This year’s current: 432 (Bombers) prorate to 1296
Pace? Similar pace

ERA:
Last year’s final: 3.382 (Bombers)
This year’s current: 2.947 (Rounders)
Pace? Much better than last year

WHIP:
Last year’s final: 1.180 (Beehman)
This year’s current: 1.101 Sting)
Pace? A little better than last year


Observations:

1. Our offensive stats currently are all on a pace to shatter last year’s final stats. It is generally the trend that offensive statistics do slow down a little for more than half of players during the 2nd half of the season, ending up with more realistic-looking stats at the end of the year. Nonetheless, it is amazing to see the Bombers’ statistical dominance at this point. I’m not sure if Corey Patterson can keep it up… but Alfonso Soriano sure has made a believer out of me.

2. The one statistic that we are behind schedule in is saves. Other than Papelbon and a few others, we aren’t seeing a bunch of closers getting a lot of saves this season. At least not yet. Perhaps there are more blow-out wins this season so far… perhaps there are more blown saves so far… or perhaps we are seeing more complete games from starting pitchers so far. I’d have to look it up.

3. Strikeouts are on pace as last year. And did you see? Bombers took it last year and he is taking it this year too. The Bombers had terrific pitching last year and are doing very similarly this year. What’s changed? In addition to great pitching, they NOW dominate 4 out of the 5 offensive statistics. That is why they have a 91.5 roto score. Good job!

I’ll see you all next week! Take care!