ESPN’s player ratings (overrated?)

When I looked at the 2005 espn player ratings for the 1st time (a couple of months ago), I naturally assumed that the league winner was the one who had players with the highest player ratings. Made sense huh? When you look at a league, take the players on a fantasy team, check out their player ratings (according to the espn fantasy website), added up the numbers and naturally the teams with the highest amounts would be among the league leaders.

But then… I had this crazy thought. Can a team with a few extreme stats players (regardless if they had high player ratings or not) win the championship??? I had this thought two nights before our draft on March 5.

Extreme stats? Yes, player who would give you big stats in only one or two areas… like David Ortiz, Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre… these kind of guys. BUT… I would make sure that I had I balanced it out on both sides… 2 or 3 power guys THEN 2 or 3 speed guys. Don’t worry about getting A-Rod, Abreu, Sizemore, Bay, Beltran, Soriano… combo players (the kind of players that scored well in the Player ratings)…

Now, as I was thinking of this, I visualized what the draft would look like. I saw teams loading up on power, some loading up on speed, some loading up on closers, and some loading up on starting aces. Thus, I visualized different teams winning different categories: one team with the most steals, one team with the most homers, and one team with the most strikeouts…

I then thought, “What would it take to win the league?” I looked at what Mike Millsap’s team (Sting) from last season. He scored 73 points to win.

Hey, wait a minute!!! If I came in 2nd place for ALL the categories, that would be 80 points!!! That would crush last year’s winning 73, and I wouldn’t need to win ANY of the 10 roto categories!!! Just come in 2nd place for each! Even if I came in 3rd for 4 of the categories, I could still get 76 points! Still… good enough to win!

Thus, I began thinking about my extreme stats strategy again. Hey! This thing could work! If I drafted Ortiz, Andruw Jones, and Utley (best extreme power 2nd baseman), BOOM! I could compete for 2nd place in homers and rbis… If I drafted Juan Pierre and Freel, BOOM! I could compete for 2nd place for steals. If I drafted R.Johnson and Schmidt, BOOM! I could compete for 2nd place for K’s and wins. If I drafted 5 closers, BOOM! I could compete for 2nd place for saves (and maybe trade 1 or 2 closers later on for more power).

Of course, the extreme stats players exhausted themselves 7 rounds into the draft and I was left to draft a few combo players like Holliday, Hermida, and Wilkerson… but I wasn’t upset… nothing ever goes perfect for all 25 rounds.

Final thoughts? I don’t expect to score 1st in all categories, but I think I have a decent shot at 2nd place for most of them, barring injuries.

Rotisserie pitching (winning with WINS)

Looking at last year’s final standings, it’s easy to attribute Mike(Sting)’s league victory to his superior talent and his steady managing of his daily lineup. But as I looked deeper at the 2nd place team (Kyle’s Bombers), I found some interesting developments.

The Bombers had an awesome pitching stat line: 1st in wins, 1st in K’s, 1st in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, and 5th in saves. Now, it would be easy to attribute his team’s 2nd place finish to Sting to the Bomber’s mediocre offense. Sure he had Pujols, Chone Figgins, and half a season of Miguel Cabrera… but that was pretty much it. There are 13 players that need to pull their weight on offense. But the thing that amazed me was that he was a closer or two away from having the PERFECT pitching stat line.

The PERFECT pitching stat line is so hard to achieve because the WINS category is SO unpredictable. Good ERA and WHIP can be achieved by solid starters (no mystery). High strikeout pitchers are also predictable (R.Johnson… Jake Peavy… Pedro…), and of course, we know 80 percent of the closers… Did you know that Kyle’s Bombers could have attained 1.5 more points (in the standings) if they got 2 more SAVES??? A closer would have done the trick… These 4 elements are usually predictable. What you see is what you get with K's, ERA/WHIP, and saves.

Wins… now that’s one category that’s hard to figure out. Chris Carpenter’s a wins machine… but who knew until this year? You would think that Peavy’s a win machine… but he hasn’t proved it yet…

Now… back to the Bombers… did you know that despite starting only 171 games (the LEAST amount of starts in the WHOLE LEAGUE), the Bombers WON the wins category???? That was NUTZ!!!

How did he do it? Roy Oswalt, Closers and middle relief… 23 of his wins came through relievers… That’s more than Oswalt (who had 22)!!! Let’s put it this way… NO starter last year had more than 22 wins… Kyle’s relief crew beat every starting pitcher in the league in WINS.

Lesson… Using Kyle’s example, perhaps the recipe for success in winning the pitching stat line in rotisserie baseball is this: 1) Get 3 solid starters who will help you in ERA/WHIP and strikeouts, 2) Have at least 3 closers that can give you 30 or more saves, and 3) Don’t be afraid to use 2 or even 3 middle relief or set-up men to complement your staff. Remember, solid set-up men can ALSO help in wins and strikeouts too… (look at Scott Shields)